A FAIR-WEATHER DAY FOR RACING
Fans of racing in the Northeast will have glorious weather to go along with their horseplay this afternoon. Temperatures in the 70’s and no precipitation in sight will combine to make today a great day to play the races, especially if you like chunking it in on tests at tracks like Belmont, Delaware, Philly, Laurel, Mountaineer, Meadowlands and Charles Town among others.
In Chicago, IL, Mother Nature likewise will smile on proceedings in the Grade III, $250,000 Hawthorne Derby this afternoon at one mile and one-eighth on the turf. Sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s are predicted. First post at Hawthorne is 2:35 pm ET.
While most Breeders’ Cup runners sit on the sidelines, waiting for their chance on racing’s championship day, fans must focus on lesser graded stakes events throughout the country. And, according to the weather forecast for much of the nation, this is a great day to do just that.
Race On!


On Track
CUP RUNNETH OVER…ALREADY
We’re about two weeks away from Breeders’ Cup Friday at Santa Anita.
I know…it snuck up on me too.
Here’s what we’re facing:
This year there will be five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday, October 24, and nine on Saturday, October 25, for a total of 14 B.C. Championship events.
Off course, Breeders’ Cup cards will be accentuated by additional races--including Oak Tree stakes --to bring the total number of offerings to 10 Friday and 11 Saturday.
That’s good, because races are like friends: the more the merrier.
Those 21 races will have a total of 128 wagering pools for players to dive into, with the usual Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta and 10-cent Superfecta offered on all races.
Daily Double wagering will be available in each race except for the Friday and Saturday finales and Saturday’s fifth and sixth races.
Pick 3’s are up for grabs in each race except for the final two races each day.
There’s a Pick 4 on Friday beginning with the fifth race, and three Pick 4’s on Saturday—race two ($1 million guarantee), race six ($2 million guarantee) and race eight.
In most cases we don’t know exactly which Breeders’ Cup events will fill those slots, that announcement is due Thursday, October 16.
Also added this year is Super Hi 5 play in Friday’s seventh (Ladies Classic) and Saturday’s ninth (Classic).
Of course, the big enchilada everyone wants to eat is Saturday’s $3 million Ultra Pick 6. Take that one down and your world will be rocked.
Players can prep for that challenge with the Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 on Friday. If no one beats the wager Friday, look for an already huge Pick Six pool to grow gigantic Saturday.
So, with all of these great races and wagering opportunities on tap what’s the best way for a horseplayer to prepare an attack?
Don’t look at me, I don’t know. But here are a few hints you may find helpful:
You Can’t Play ‘Em All—With so many quality races and an abundance of wagering choices, you’ve got to pick and choose your spots wisely. Nothing’s worse than busting your budget on early races and having little left to attack the ones you really like. Plan your plays ahead of time and keep an eye on your units.
Demand Value—Breeders’ Cup races are different from everyday, run-of-the-mill events where you immediately draw a line through several competitors. In BC races nearly everyone in the field has a chance to win on their best day. This means you absolutely must demand value. Large pools and full fields create juicy prices. Make sure to take advantage of the generous odds offered and search hard for value.
Stop, Look and Listen—Remember when you first learned how to cross railroad tracks? Well, the same is true when it comes to prepping for the Breeders’ Cup. You’ve got to ‘Stop’ whatever you’re doing. Preparing for the Breeders’ Cup is a full-time occupation and you can’t be distracted by work, family or other sports on television. Don’t worry, your boss, significant other and kids will understand. Hey, it’s the Breeders’ Cup, for Pete’s sake.
Next, ‘Look’ at articles, publications, blogs, e-mails, recaps, previews, race replays, etc….whatever information you can find about the horses running in the Breeders’ Cup. Since the runners in each race are so closely matched, you’re not going to be able to just breeze through the past performances on race day and pick a bunch of winners—unless you’re really lucky, in which case you can pretty much ignore all of this advice anyway.
Make sure to pick up a FREE copy of XpressBet’s Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide (available Oct. 17). The Guide contains selections, analysis and whole bunch of interesting tidbits on Breeders’ Cup. Plus, it’s FREE. And forget that old adage about ‘you get what you pay for.’ It doesn’t apply in this case.
Finally, ‘Listen’ to commentators, hosts, guests, analysts, etc. and pay attention to what they have to say about the races. Don’t follow any one prognosticator blindly (they all pick a mixture of winners and losers), instead, gather bits of information from each that will help you make intelligent choices. That is unless you’re friendly with one of those previously mentioned lucky people. In that case, forget everything else and just bet what they bet.
If you follow these suggestions closely you’ll probably lose a bunch of money on the two-day Breeders’ Cup. But, to corrupt an old phrase: Winning isn’t everything.
No matter if it’s the stock market or the racetrack, we all aim to lose wisely.
Race On!
It's Post Time
RACING TO SAVOR
For those of us who love Thoroughbred racing, these are truly wonderful days thanks to Curlin, Big Brown, Zenyatta, Zarkava and Peppers Pride.
Instead of being whisked off to stud after his 2007 Horse of the Year campaign, Curlin has continued to race in 2008. He’s won seven straight dirt races. Curlin had his first California workout Monday on Santa Anita’s new synthetic surface.
Big Brown, a special 3-year-old, has won all of his races except the Belmont Stakes. He ran away with the Kentucky Derby, prevailing by 4 3/4 lengths despite starting from post 20 in one of the most extraordinary performances ever seen in that race. Big Brown worked six furlongs Tuesday in 1:14.60 on turf listed as good at Aqueduct.
Looking ahead, it seems that we just might get the showdown so many fans have been clamoring for between Curlin and Big Brown in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 25.
Along with Curlin and Big Brown, we have seen not one, not two, but three remarkable fillies grace the racing stage this year in Zenyatta, Zarkava and Peppers Pride.
Zenyatta is undefeated after eight career starts. The 4-year-old filly is six for six in 2008. As Dick Jerardi recently wrote, “Zenyatta appears to have been dropped in from another planet. Watch her run and you have to laugh. It just looks so easy.”
Yet, as I wrote on Sept. 17, Zenyatta is not necessarily the best female Thoroughbred in the world.
“If European 3-year-old filly superstar Zarkava wins the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, it would be hard to deny that she might be the best female Thoroughbred on the planet,” I wrote. “I don’t see anyone beating Zarkava in the Arc. If she does win it, she will become the first filly to do so since Urban Sea in 1992.”
Well, Zarkava produced yet another of her electrifying late charges to indeed win the Arc last Sunday. How brilliant was she? One writer, Desmond Stoneham, went so far as to call it “the performance of the century.”
Stoneham wrote for the Thoroughbred Times: “Zarkava gave the performance of the century when she rallied from near the back of the field to score an authoritative victory over Youmzain on Sunday in the $5,522,400 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
“The Aga Khan’s amazing filly, who was racing against males for the first time, trounced 13 opponents in the world’s richest turf race, which was run on a dull, drizzly day.”
Stoneham was far from the only member of the media effusive in his praise for Zarkava’s two-length Arc victory.
In a story appearing on The Sporting Life’s website, Martin Kelly wrote: “Anticipation and expectation gave way to awe and amazement as the incredible Zarkava confirmed herself a genuine champion with a stunning success in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp. Wins over a mile, 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles have come alike to [trainer] Alain de Royer-Dupre’s 3-year-old since she arrived on the scene with a Group I win on this card 12 months ago.”
For The Times of London, Alan Lee wrote: “The [Arc] victory of Zarkava ranks with the finest this great raceday has produced. She came with dizzy reputation and she came unbeaten. Ripe, many believed, for deflation, a suspicion that hardened as the morning brought speculation that she would defect due to softened ground. That, and fears about her inside draw and her stalls conduct, allowed her to start at a generous 11-4 on Betfair. Zarkava neither knew nor cared about such misgivings. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, coveted by all Europe, had long been her destiny and she was not about to mislay it now.”
For the Daily Racing Form, Alan Shuback wrote: “If there is a better horse in the world than Zarkava this year, it is hiding some place where human beings do not have access.”
In Shuback’s story, Zarkava’s trainer is quoted as saying: “Today we have seen confirmation that she is really out of the ordinary. She has a fluid way of moving and an ease of acceleration in just a couple of strides which is incredible. I have never seen her in difficulty. I am very lucky to train such a great filly.”
Zarkava has been machine-like in winning all seven of her lifetime starts by margins ranging from two to three lengths.
Further proof that Zarkava is a phenomenal talent is what happened in last Saturday’s Grade I E.P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine. European shipper Folk Opera won by 1 3/4 lengths as the 3-2 favorite while earning a 103 Beyer Speed Figure.
Folk Opera had finished eighth, nine lengths behind Zarkava, in the Group I Prix Vermeille at Longchamp on Sept. 14. Zarkava won that race despite a poor start and a layoff of 14 weeks.
While Zenyatta currently is being prepared to run in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic on Oct. 24, Zarkava will not be coming to this country for the Breeders’ Cup. The Aga Khan announced after the Arc that Zarkava is not going to race again this year. No decision has been made yet as to whether the Irish-bred filly will race next year. I’m predicting that she will not race again.
Meanwhile, Peppers Pride, the pride of New Mexico, won a six-furlong allowance race against state-breds by 1 3/4-lengths at Zia Park last Saturday to remain undefeated in 17 career starts.
Peppers Pride set a modern record for consecutive wins by a North American-based Thoroughbred. She previously had shared the mark with Citation, Mister Frisky, Cigar and Hallowed Dreams. The Paint Horse Got Country Grip won his first 16 career starts before finishing second in the Mr. Lewie Memorial Handicap at Remington Park last April 19.
In a story for the Farmington Daily Times, a New Mexico newspaper, Steve Bortstein made a couple of mistakes when writing about Peppers Prides’ historic victory.
“Peppers Pride remained unbeaten and became the all-time record holder for consecutive wins in Thoroughbred racing history Saturday at Zia Park, where she posted a convincing win over a field of five allowance runners to pick up her 17th win from as many starts,” Bortstein wrote.
Peppers Pride actually tied Silent Witness for most consecutive wins by a Thoroughbred in modern racing history.
Silent Witness, bred in Australia and a grandson of 1982 U.S. Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo, began his career by winning his first 17 races, all sprints. His first loss came when he lost a mile race at Hong Kong’s Sha Tin in 2005.
I fondly recall being in attendance at Sha Tin in 2006 to see Silent Witness competing in the Hong Kong Sprint. Silent Witness had won that race in 2003 and 2004. But he finished second to Absolute Champion in the 2005 Hong Kong Sprint.
After finishing ninth at Sha Tin on Feb. 4, 2007, Silent Witness was retired from racing. The bay gelding now resides at Living Legends, the International Home of Rest for Champion Horses, in Australia.
Peppers Pride’s 17 wins have all come in races restricted to New Mexico-breds. Bortstein wrote, “Hallowed Dreams was bred in Louisiana, and raced exclusively against other runners from that state while on her win streak.”
During Hallowed Dream’s 16-race winning streak, five times she started in a race not for Lousiana-breds only.
As for the future, Daily Racing Form’s Mary Rampellini reported that Peppers Pride might have one or two more starts this year before being retired from racing.
Joel Marr, who trains Peppers Pride for owner-breeder Joe Allen, said that while a firm decision has not been made, they are leaning toward breeding her in 2009.
Marr said possible remaining starts for Peppers Pride are the $170,000 New Mexico Cup Filly and Mare Championship at Zia Park on Nov. 9 and the $125,000 New Mexico State Racing Commission Handicap at Sunland Park on Dec. 14. Both races are restricted to New Mexico-bred fillies and mares.
If Peppers Pride does continue racing in 2009, Marr said a start at a track outside New Mexico would not be ruled out.
Prior to the victory last Saturday by Peppers Pride, Steve Asmussen, Curlin’s trainer, described the 5-year-old mare’s 16-race winning streak as “incredible,” according to Gary West of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
“I don’t care what the competition might be,” Asmussen said. “I wouldn’t care if it was 16 straight maiden races -- if they’d let you do that -- it’s an incredible accomplishment. It’s hard to win a race, and so many things can happen to beat you. They’ve done a great job with her.”
CURLIN’S FIRST CALIFORNIA WORKOUT
I don’t think there is any question that Asmussen has done a great job himself with Curlin.
Last Monday morning, I watched Curlin go four furlongs at Santa Anita in :52 4/5 with exercise rider Carlos Rosas in the saddle. The 4-year-old Smart Strike colt did it very easily in what was described by Asmussen as a maintenance work.
I timed Curlin in :53 1/5 (actually :53.30). Southern California trainer A.C. Avilia told me that he caught the 2007 Horse of the Year in :53.
The official clockers termed Curlin’s workout as “breezing,” which in Southern California means not being asked at all by the rider. Unlike most other areas of the country, SoCal clockers infrequently label a workout as “breezing.” The vast majority of works are characterized as “handily.”
There were 31 workouts at four furlongs Monday on Santa Anita’s main track. The only one termed “breezing” was Curlin’s.
An unusually large number of people -- many of them with cameras -- were at Santa Anita as the sun rose to see Curlin’s workout. A group of reporters followed Asmussen around. Looking at that scene from a distance, you couldn’t blame anyone for thinking perhaps Barack Obama or Sarah Palin had made a surprise visit.
“Have you ever seen so much drama for such a slow workout?” private clocker Gary Young quipped.
Oak Tree executive vice president Sherwood Chillingworth and Santa Anita president Ron Charles closely monitored Curlin’s first workout in the Golden State. After it was over, Asmussen was noncommittal to the media with regard to Curlin’s Breeders’ Cup Classic status.
“He sure does hold his cards close to the vest,” Charles said of Asmussen.
Curlin is scheduled to have another workout this coming Monday. He will have company for that drill, according to Asmussen.
The workout by Curlin last Monday was his first since his victory in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on Sept. 27. With his win in the Gold Cup, he increased his career bankroll to $10,246,800 to break Cigar’s earnings record.
I was struck by how well Curlin looked physically Monday, particularly in the context of a 2008 campaign that included a trip to Dubai.
“He looks fantastic,” Southern California trainer Eddie Truman remarked.
As for how Curlin handled Santa Anita’s synthetic surface, Asmussen told me that Curlin was not asked enough in the workout to really determine whether or not he liked it.
I will say that it appeared to me that Curlin was not struggling at all as he breezed over the surface Monday. So, at this point, it seems fair say, “So far, so good.” How he performs in a more serious drill next Monday certainly should be more telling.
END
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